What factors could impact Bitcoin’s price trend over the next two years?

Bitcoin’s 2-Year Trend at Risk: Can Bulls Protect the $90K Support?

Bitcoin’s powerful uptrend from the late‑2022 cycle low has carried through two years of higher highs and higher lows, reinforced by the 2024 halving and the rise of spot ETFs. But as price gravity tests the $90,000 area, traders are asking a pivotal question: does this level mark structural support in the current cycle, or is it the start of a deeper mean reversion?

Why the $90K Area Matters for Bitcoin’s 2-Year Uptrend

From a market-structure perspective, the 2-year trend is defined by ascending weekly higher lows that began after the 2022 capitulation. The $90K zone is critical because it often aligns with multiple technical and behavioral confluences:

• Round-number psychology and liquidity clustering
• Proximity to the rising 20-week EMA and/or 200-day moving average in mature bull phases
• Potential overlap with the short-term holder realized price (a key on-chain pivot)
• Anchored VWAPs from major events (e.g., Jan 2024 U.S. spot ETF launches)
• Fibonacci retracements of the most recent impulse leg

In bull markets, pullbacks into these zones tend to reset leverage, hand supply from weak to strong hands, and prepare the next leg-if buyers step in decisively.

On-Chain and Derivatives: Signals That Decide $90K

On-chain metrics to track

• Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH RP): Reclaims above STH RP historically mark renewed risk-on; sustained breaks below warn of trend fatigue.
• Long-Term Holder Supply and Spent Volume: Rising LTH supply and low spent volume favor support; spikes in older coin spending into weakness can amplify drawdowns.
• Exchange Reserves and Netflows: Persistent spot outflows support higher floors; sharp inflows during selloffs signal distribution risk.
• SOPR/Realized Profit-Loss: Healthy resets are fine; multi-day sub-1 readings often coincide with deeper corrections if demand is soft.

Derivatives posture

• Funding Rates and Perp Basis: Neutral-to-slightly positive is healthy; persistently elevated funding into resistance raises long-squeeze risk.
• Term Structure: Contango with modest premiums is normal; flattening/backwardation into $90K suggests stress and hedging pressure.
• Options Skew and Gamma: Put demand clustering around the 90K strike can create “sticky” magnet effects; dealer gamma positioning can either stabilize or accelerate moves.

Post-Halving Supply and Spot ETFs: The Structural Flow Story

Two regime shifts still define the 2025 market:

• Fourth Halving (April 2024): Bitcoin’s block subsidy fell from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, structurally reducing new issuance. This supply squeeze increases sensitivity to marginal demand.
• U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs (launched January 2024): ETF creations/redemptions have become a material driver of net spot demand. Persistent inflows can fortify supports like $90K; net outflows can undermine them.

Miners, facing reduced subsidies, tend to be more price‑sensitive with treasury management. Elevated fee markets (during network congestion) can buffer them, but generally miner sell pressure into weakness is a risk if $90K cracks. Conversely, steady ETF demand can absorb issuance and miner distribution, stabilizing price around key supports.

Macro Liquidity Still Sets the Backdrop

While Bitcoin increasingly trades on crypto-native flows, global liquidity and rates remain central. Key macro watchpoints:

• Dollar liquidity and rate expectations: Easing financial conditions historically support risk assets and crypto multiples.
• Equity breadth and volatility: Rising equity volatility or tightening liquidity can transmit to BTC via de-risking.
• Stablecoin supply growth: Expanding stablecoin float often correlates with improved spot demand.

Trade Map: Can Bulls Defend $90K?

Scenario paths

1. Successful Defense: Wick through $90K, swift reclaim on rising spot volumes, derivatives reset (funding cools), and options skew normalizes. Path reopens toward prior highs.
2. Range Formation: $90K holds on weekly closes but momentum stalls; price oscillates between a mid-range pivot and $90K as ETF flows and macro signals coalesce.
3. Break and Acceptance Below: Multiple closes below $90K, rising exchange inflows, negative basis, and persistent ETF outflows. Market probes deeper confluence (e.g., 20-week EMA/200-day MA or next HVN).

What would confirm bulls are in control?

• Weekly close above $90K with improving spot-market bid
• STH RP reclaimed and held
• Neutralizing funding and declining volatility after the bounce (sign of stronger hands in control)
• Consistent ETF net inflows and falling exchange balances

Risk management checklist

• Define invalidation: multiple daily/weekly closes below $90K with weakening spot breadth
• Use staggered entries around confluence (VWAPs, EMAs, Fibs) rather than a single level
• Hedge via options when skew is favorable; avoid crowded leverage
• Monitor miner flows and whale order book activity during U.S. ETF hours

Conclusion: $90K Is a Battleground, Not a Destiny

The $90K zone is less a magic number and more a cluster of trend-defining signals. If bulls can pair structural supply constraints (post-halving) with steady ETF demand and healthy on-chain posture, the 2-year uptrend can extend. If, instead, $90K breaks on rising distribution, negative basis, and deteriorating liquidity, expect a larger trend test toward deeper moving-average and volume nodes. In either case, the roadmap is clear: watch confluence, flows, and weekly closes more than intraday noise.