– What is Arthur Hayes’ perspective on the new Fed ‘RMP’ tool?

Arthur Hayes: New Fed “RMP” Tool Conceals Resurgence of Money Printing

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and a closely watched macro-crypto commentator, argues that the Federal Reserve’s next liquidity lever-what he calls “RMP” (Reserve Management Purchases)-will quietly reflate risk assets while sidestepping the politically charged label of quantitative easing (QE). For crypto investors, the thesis is simple: stealth liquidity is still liquidity, and liquidity drives Bitcoin, stablecoins, and Web3 risk-taking.

What Is “RMP” and How Is It Different From QE?

Under the Fed’s ample-reserves regime, the central bank can add bank reserves without declaring a full-blown QE program. In 2019, the Fed bought Treasury bills to stabilize money markets and insisted it was “not QE.” Hayes argues a 2025-era reprise-RMP-could look similar: ongoing purchases of short-dated Treasuries (T-bills) to ensure “ample reserves,” with the practical effect of easing financial conditions.

Mechanics in Plain English

• The Fed buys T-bills from primary dealers.
• Payment credits the banking system with new reserves.
• Reserves rise, funding stress eases, and risk appetite typically improves.
• Because purchases focus on bills (not coupons/MBS), officials can claim it’s a “technical” plumbing fix-not stimulus.

Important 2025 context: The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) expired in March 2024, the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) balance largely drained through 2023-2024, and QT continued into 2025 (though the pace is a policy choice). If reserve scarcity reappears as QT and heavy Treasury issuance collide, a bill-buying “reserve management” playbook becomes more likely-precisely the backdrop Hayes says will revive the money printer by another name.

Why Hayes Thinks RMP Is Bullish for Crypto

• Reserves up, risk up: Rising reserves tend to ease funding markets, compress credit spreads, and lift beta-historically supportive for Bitcoin, ETH, and high-beta altcoins.
• Stablecoin flywheel: Easier dollar funding and improving risk sentiment often correlate with expanding stablecoin market caps, which lubricate crypto liquidity and on-chain leverage.
• ETF and carry channels: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (live since 2024) can transmit fresh flows when risk appetite returns; lower funding stress supports basis trades and market making.
• Correlation regime: Crypto’s medium-term returns have tracked global USD liquidity impulses; “not-QE” still expands liquidity.

How to Track the Stealth Money Printer

1. Fed H.4.1 (weekly): Watch “Securities held outright” composition-rising Treasury bill holdings signal reserve-management buying. Also track “Repurchase agreements” and “Loans.”
2. New York Fed SOMA disclosures: Bill holdings vs coupons; any shift toward T-bill accumulation is a tell.
3. RRP and SRF usage: With RRP near post-2024 lows, watch whether the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) sees persistent take-up-sustained usage can flag reserve tightness ahead of RMP-style actions.
4. Treasury General Account (TGA): TGA rebuilds drain reserves; TGA drawdowns add reserves. The TGA-liquidity tug-of-war often front-runs risk moves.
5. QT pace and guidance: Any QT taper or balance-sheet guidance hinting at “ample reserves” recalibration is a green light for reserve additions.
6. Crypto liquidity proxies: Total stablecoin market cap, BTC/ETH basis, funding rates, and spot ETF net flows.

Counterarguments and Risks

• It’s “plumbing,” not stimulus: The Fed can credibly claim RMP is technical and temporary. Critics say effects matter more than labels; still, the signaling is weaker than QE.
• Sticky inflation risk: If inflation re-accelerates, the Fed may prioritize price stability over liquidity and keep QT running, limiting or delaying any RMP.
• Treasury issuance dynamics: Heavy coupon issuance can tighten financial conditions even if bills are purchased; the mix matters.
• Regulatory shifts: Stablecoin rules, bank capital changes, or ETF distribution frictions can blunt the transmission from reserves to crypto markets.
• Liquidity can whipsaw: Sudden TGA rebuilds or funding shocks can drain reserves quickly, reversing risk rallies.

Strategy for Crypto Investors in a Potential RMP Era

• Align with liquidity: Bias core exposure (BTC, ETH) higher when reserves and bill purchases rise; fade when TGA rebuilds and QT accelerate.
• Use on-chain and macro dashboards: Combine H.4.1/SOMA data with stablecoin market cap trends and ETF flow trackers.
• Favor quality in alt cycles: If RMP drives a beta wave, rotate into higher-liquidity L1s/L2s and real cash-flow tokens; avoid thin-liquidity tails.
• Risk management: Tighten stops and avoid excessive leverage-liquidity tailwinds can reverse fast if policy rhetoric changes.

Bottom Line

Hayes’s “RMP” framing spotlights a likely 2025 playbook: the Fed can add reserves via T-bill purchases under a technical banner while maintaining the optics of restraint. Whether or not officials call it QE, the result-more reserves-has historically supported risk assets, including crypto. Watch the data, not the labels: if SOMA bill holdings and reserves climb while funding stress recedes, the stealth printer is on-and crypto’s liquidity cycle has fresh fuel.