Why do some analysts describe the potential Bitcoin rally as ‘absurd’?

Analyst Reveals Bitcoin Liquidation Data Suggests “Absurd” Path to $100K Rally

Introduction: Why Liquidation Maps Matter for BTC’s Next Big Move

A prominent crypto derivatives analyst has highlighted liquidation heatmaps that outline an “absurd” path for Bitcoin to surge toward the $100,000 mark. The core idea is simple: stacked short-liquidation levels above spot price can create a reflexive short squeeze, where forced buys propel BTC higher through thin liquidity. With U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, the 2024 halving, and still-elevated leverage in perpetual futures, the setup for an outsized move remains a live debate in 2025.

Bitcoin Liquidation Heatmaps: How a Squeeze to $100K Could Unfold

Liquidation heatmaps visualize price zones crowded with leveraged positions that would be force-closed if price moves far enough. When many shorts cluster between round numbers and prior highs, a sustained grind up can trigger cascading liquidations-each liquidated short is a market buy, potentially driving price higher into the next cluster.

Key dynamics behind the “absurd” rally path

• Short-liquidation clusters: Layers of vulnerable short positions tend to build above recent highs (e.g., prior ATH ranges). Clearing one band can accelerate price into the next.
• Air pockets in offers: If order books are thin above spot, relatively small net buying can move price quickly.
• Perp-driven reflexivity: Perpetual swaps dominate BTC liquidity. When shorts unwind, OI can drop while price rises, compounding momentum.
• ETF spot bid: Net inflows to spot BTC ETFs (launched in 2024) add a non-levered, structural buyer that can amplify squeezes initiated in derivatives.

Signals That Support-or Undermine-the $100K Squeeze Narrative

The “absurd path” doesn’t mean straight up only. It means the map of liquidations above price could be unusually dense, but catalysts and positioning must align. Traders should watch a short list of on-chain and market structure metrics:

1) Positioning and leverage

• Open interest (OI): Rising OI with flat price can indicate fuel for a squeeze. Watch aggregate OI in BTC perps and CME futures.
• Funding rates: Persistently negative funding with resilient price suggests trapped shorts; persistently positive funding warns of long crowding.
• Liquidation skew: Heatmaps showing more liquidations above than below spot support the upside squeeze case.

2) Spot demand and flows

• Spot ETF net flows (U.S. and abroad): Sustained net inflows tighten supply and validate upside breaks. Choppy or negative flows weaken the case.
• Exchange reserves: Declining exchange BTC balances often correlate with reduced sell pressure.

3) Options and liquidity

• Options gamma exposure: Positive gamma near key strikes can dampen volatility; negative gamma can amplify directional moves as strikes get run.
• Order book depth: Shallow top-of-book liquidity above spot increases the odds of fast, “gappy” moves.

What Makes the Path “Absurd” in 2025

In market-structure terms, “absurd” means the route is counterintuitive: price can grind upward through resistance faster than fundamentals change, primarily because of positioning mechanics.

• Layered short fuel: As price reclaims prior highs, stops and liquidations compound, creating mechanical buying unrelated to new information.
• Asymmetric liquidity: Depth often thins above ATHs, causing large percentage moves on modest net flow.
• Cross-venue feedback: Perp squeezes can pull in spot buyers (including ETFs and discretionary funds), validating the breakout and refueling momentum.

However, the same mechanics can invert. If the market overextends and funding turns punitive, a long squeeze can erase gains just as swiftly.

Potential Catalysts and Risks for a $100K BTC

Catalysts

1. Persistent spot ETF inflows and institutional mandates that add BTC exposure on breakouts.
2. Macro tailwinds: Rate cut expectations or a benign risk environment supporting risk-on flows.
3. Post-halving miner selling discipline and improved hash-price balance reducing structural sell pressure.
4. Stablecoin supply growth, signaling greater dry powder across exchanges and DeFi.

Risks

1. ETF outflows or risk-off shocks turning an upside run into a sharp long squeeze.
2. Regulatory setbacks affecting exchange liquidity, bank rails, or ETF operations.
3. Options pinning around large expiries capping momentum near key strikes.
4. Funding overextension leading to crowding and vulnerability to reversals.

Practical Playbook: Trading an “Absurd” Squeeze Responsibly

• Map the clusters: Note liquidation bands above spot (e.g., prior highs, round numbers like 80K, 90K, 100K). Expect acceleration between clusters.
• Confirm with flows: Look for ETF net inflows and spot-led rallies (positive cumulative volume delta in spot) to validate a breakout.
• Track OI and funding: Rising price with falling OI after a breakout indicates shorts are being blown out-momentum can continue until funding flips.
• Size for volatility: Use smaller leverage, wider stops, and partial profit-taking into major round numbers and options expiry windows.
• Mind regime shifts: If funding spikes and OI rebuilds on longs, be ready for post-squeeze chop or pullbacks.

Conclusion: Squeeze Mechanics Can Outrun Narratives-Until They Don’t

Liquidation data provides a compelling blueprint for how Bitcoin could stage an “absurd” sprint toward $100,000: clustered short liquidations, thin overhead liquidity, and supportive spot flows can combine into a reflexive melt-up. Yet the same leverage that fuels the path can also reverse it quickly. In 2025, the most robust edge comes from marrying liquidation heatmaps with real-time funding, OI, ETF flows, and options positioning-letting market structure, not headlines, guide risk and timing.