How does Bill Miller IV’s investment strategy influence his perspective on cryptocurrency?
Bill Miller IV: Why Bitcoin “Looks Ready to Go Again” – Insights from the Fund Manager
Introduction: A Veteran Value Investor’s Bullish Case
Bill Miller IV, a portfolio manager known for rigorous, fundamentals-first analysis, argues that Bitcoin looks “ready to go again” in 2025. His thesis aligns with several converging forces: structural demand from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, a post-halving supply squeeze, improving market structure on-chain, and signs of miner capitulation waning. For crypto-native and institutional readers alike, the setup echoes prior cyclical regimes-only with deeper liquidity, clearer regulation in key markets, and broader institutional access.
Structural Demand vs. Shrinking Supply: The Core of the Thesis
Spot ETF flows are durable, not “tourist” liquidity
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs, led by iShares (IBIT) and Fidelity (FBTC), have attracted tens of billions of dollars in assets since their 2024 launch, making them some of the fastest-growing ETFs on record.
- These vehicles transformed Bitcoin access for wealth platforms, retirement accounts, and institutions with strict mandates, converting episodic retail demand into recurring, programmatic allocations.
- Even when flows slowed during risk-off weeks in 2024, cumulative holdings remained high, underscoring “sticky” demand.
The 2024 halving tightened supply for years
- Bitcoin’s April 2024 halving cut new issuance from ~900 BTC/day to ~450 BTC/day.
- During strong weeks, ETF net buys have at times overwhelmed new issuance by multiples-supporting a structural supply deficit when risk appetite is healthy.
- Long-term treasuries (e.g., corporates like MicroStrategy) and long-term holders (LTHs) further reduce tradable float.
| Driver | 2025 Context | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| US Spot ETFs | Large, persistent AUM with steady inflows | Institutional on-ramps create durable bid |
| Post-Halving Issuance | ~450 BTC/day | Fewer new coins vs. growing demand |
| LTH & Treasuries | Near-record dormant supply | Constrained free float amplifies moves |
On-Chain and Market Structure: Healthier Foundations
On-chain signals point to re-accumulation
- Long-term holder supply remains near all-time highs, a hallmark of conviction-driven ownership.
- Spent-output metrics (e.g., low coin-age destruction in quiet periods) suggest limited old-coins distribution versus prior cycle tops.
- Exchange reserves trend lower over multi-quarter windows, indicating self-custody and long-term storage.
Derivatives are no longer driving the bus
- Compared with 2021 excesses, leverage is better balanced across futures and perps, with basis and funding typically normalizing after risk-on spikes.
- This reduces liquidation cascades and supports trend continuity when spot demand reasserts.
Miners: From Post-Halving Stress to Stabilization
Capitulation risk faded as weaker miners exited
- Following the 2024 halving, hashprice compression forced high-cost producers to optimize or sell inventory, creating transitory sell pressure.
- As network hashrate and difficulty re-equilibrated, public miners strengthened balance sheets via hedging, equity raises, and efficiency upgrades.
- Historically, miner stress resolves before durable uptrends-a pattern now consistent with 2025 conditions.
What that means for price discovery
- Lower forced selling from miners reduces headwinds during consolidations.
- ETFs and long-term allocators absorb available supply more easily.
- Price can trend with fewer violent drawdowns when macro conditions cooperate.
Macro and Regulation: Catalysts and Caveats
Macro winds are less hostile
- Inflation cooled from 2022 peaks; markets in 2025 generally expect a gentler policy path than the 2022-2023 tightening cycle.
- Improved liquidity conditions tend to favor scarce, high-beta assets like Bitcoin, though the path is rarely linear.
Regulatory clarity increased in key markets
- US approvals of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, EU MiCA implementation phases, and ongoing court-driven constraints on arbitrary enforcement have brightened the institutional landscape.
- Spot Ether ETFs launched in 2024 broadened the digital asset access story, indirectly benefiting Bitcoin mindshare.
Risks that could delay or invalidate the bull case
- Sharp risk-off macro shock (growth scare, inflation re-acceleration, liquidity withdrawal)
- Regulatory surprises, adverse taxation changes, or ETF outflows reversing the structural bid
- Security incidents or large-entity liquidations increasing near-term supply
Conclusion: Why “Ready to Go Again” Resonates
Miller’s view rests on a simple but powerful imbalance: structural, institutionalized demand now confronts a materially smaller supply stream in a market with healthier on-chain ownership and better-balanced derivatives. That mix doesn’t guarantee a straight line up, but it historically aligns with strong multi-quarter advances once consolidations resolve.
For crypto-native participants and allocators new to the space, the actionable takeaways are consistent with a disciplined playbook: prioritize spot-led flows, monitor ETF net creations/redemptions, track miner behavior and on-chain distribution, and respect macro. With those gauges aligned, Bill Miller IV’s “looks ready to go again” framing reflects not hype, but a thesis grounded in evolving market structure and maturing access rails.
