Who is the exec that declared ‘RIP’ to the Bitcoin price cycle, and what does that mean?
Bitcoin RSI Signals Major Breakout: Exec Declares ‘RIP’ to 4-Year BTC Price Cycle
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on Bitcoin has flashed a decisive breakout, reigniting debate about whether the market has exited the classic 4-year halving-driven rhythm. With a prominent industry executive declaring “RIP” to the 4-year BTC price cycle, traders and builders across crypto, blockchain, and web3 are reassessing what drives Bitcoin’s momentum in 2025: ETF flows, macro liquidity, or still the halving?
Bitcoin RSI Breakout: Why It Matters for BTC Price Action
RSI measures momentum. On higher timeframes (weekly and monthly), Bitcoin tends to trend when RSI “range-shifts” from neutral into bull conditions.
What the RSI is signaling now
- Range shift: A sustained weekly RSI above the 50-60 zone often marks a bull market regime, where pullbacks are bought and shallow.
- Confirmed breakout: Breaking a multi-month RSI downtrend line and pushing into a 65-75 band points to momentum expansion and a potential price discovery phase.
- Invalidation to watch: A swift loss of weekly RSI 50 combined with a lower-low in price would argue the breakout failed.
How this compares to prior BTC uptrends
- Early-cycle bursts: Historically, weekly RSI thrusts above 70 often align with the early or mid-stages of major rallies, not necessarily the end.
- Shallow resets: In strong trends, weekly RSI pullbacks tend to bottom near 40-50 before turning up again, rather than sinking to oversold levels.
“RIP to the 4-Year Cycle”: Why the Halving Narrative Is Being Challenged
Bitcoin’s four-year cadence-halving, expansion, blow-off, drawdown-has been a useful map. But as one well-known crypto executive put it, “RIP to the 4-year cycle.” The argument is not that halvings don’t matter, but that new structural forces now compete with or overshadow that schedule.
Spot ETF demand is a structural game-changer
- Persistent buy pressure: US spot Bitcoin ETFs, launched in 2024, introduced steady, rules-based inflows from advisors, ETFs-of-ETFs, and retirement channels.
- Liquidity feedback loop: ETF creation/redemption supports tighter spreads and deeper liquidity, dampening purely cyclical volatility.
- Cycle desynchronization: Flows tied to asset allocation and macro conditions may not align with halving dates, breaking the neat 4-year pattern.
Supply dynamics and miner share are evolving
- Post-halving issuance: The 2024 halving cut annualized new supply again, but issuance is now a smaller slice versus total traded float.
- Miners under pressure: Higher hash rate and lower block rewards compress margins, spurring treasury management, M&A, and efficiency upgrades that can shift selling profiles.
- Long-term holders: A rising share of supply is held by long-term holders (LTHs), which can dampen reflexive selloffs and alter cycle timing.
Macro liquidity trumps calendar effects
- Rates and balance sheets: Global liquidity, rates, and USD dynamics steer risk appetite. Bitcoin’s correlation with liquidity cycles can override halving-driven seasonality.
- Institutional positioning: Derivatives basis, options skew, and cross-asset volatility now reflect professional risk management more than retail boom-bust alone.
| Driver | Old Cycle View | 2025 Regime View |
|---|---|---|
| Halving Supply Shock | Primary timing anchor | One input among many |
| ETF Flows | Non-existent | Persistent structural demand |
| Macro Liquidity | Secondary factor | Cycle-defining factor |
| Market Participants | Retail-dominant | Institutional + retail mix |
On-Chain and Market Structure: Are Signals Aligned With RSI?
Momentum is more reliable when confirmed by flow and on-chain data. Several indicators in 2025 support the breakout thesis:
- Exchange balances drifting down: Indicates net accumulation and reduced immediate sell pressure.
- LTH supply near highs: Long-term holders historically distribute into strength later in trends, not at the first breakout.
- Hash rate near record levels: Secures the network; miner selling becomes more strategic than reflexive.
- Healthy derivatives structure: Moderately positive funding and contango without extreme leverage reduces blow-up risk.
- Options market: Neutral-to-bullish skew suggests demand for upside exposure but not euphoric complacency.
| Signal | Recent Read | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly RSI | Breaks above multi-month downtrend | Momentum expansion |
| Exchange BTC Balance | Gradual decline | Supply tightening |
| ETF Net Flows | Tens of billions cumulative since 2024 | Structural demand |
| Futures Basis | Positive, not extreme | Healthy risk appetite |
Scenarios, Levels, and Risk Management for Crypto Traders
Base case: Momentum carries higher
- RSI holds above 55-60 on weekly closes.
- Pullbacks find support at prior breakout zones and rising moving averages.
- ETF inflows and falling exchange balances persist, reinforcing dips.
Alternative case: Failed breakout and range reversion
- Weekly RSI falls back under 50 with bearish divergence.
- Derivatives funding flips persistently negative or extreme positive before a flush.
- ETF outflows or macro shocks (rates spike, liquidity drain) pressure risk assets.
Practical checkpoints
- Monitor weekly RSI trendline and 50 level for regime confirmation.
- Track ETF net creations/redemptions and exchange balances for spot-led moves.
- Watch options skew and realized volatility for signs of euphoria or fragility.
Conclusion: A Momentum Regime Shift, But Don’t Bury the Halving Just Yet
Bitcoin’s RSI breakout strengthens the case for a renewed uptrend and, as some executives argue, a departure from the tidy 4-year cycle. In 2025, structural demand from spot ETFs, shifting miner economics, and macro liquidity may dominate timing and amplitude more than the halving alone. For builders and traders, the playbook evolves: respect momentum, validate it with on-chain and flow data, and stay vigilant to macro currents that can bend, break, or extend any cycle narrative.
