How does Mow predict a decade-long rally for Bitcoin after the 2025 bear market?

Bitcoin’s 2025 Bear Market: A Precursor to a Decade‑Long Rally, Says Mow

Introduction: Volatility Now, Secular Strength Later

Bitcoin’s 2025 drawdown may feel like yet another crypto winter, but according to Samson Mow-longtime Bitcoin advocate and CEO of JAN3-it could be the setup for a powerful, multi‑year advance. Mow’s thesis: a mid‑cycle shakeout clears leverage, compresses miner supply, and hands patient allocators a rare opportunity before a structurally driven, decade‑long bull market fueled by constrained issuance and expanding institutional demand.

Why a 2025 Bitcoin Bear Market Is Plausible-and Constructive

Even in secular uptrends, Bitcoin historically endures deep pullbacks. Several forces can create a 2025 bear phase without invalidating a long‑term bull thesis:

• Post‑halving miner stress: The April 2024 halving cut block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, reducing daily issuance to ~450 BTC. Weaker miners often capitulate months after a halving, amplifying sell pressure and hash‑rate volatility.
• Macro liquidity swings: Shifts in global liquidity, rates, and dollar strength can tighten risk conditions, pulling Bitcoin lower even as fundamentals improve.
• Leverage resets: After spot ETF adoption and strong inflows in 2024, overheated derivatives positioning can unwind, forcing cascading liquidations.
• Profit‑taking from 2023-2024 buyers: Early entrants harvesting gains can weigh on price before new demand absorbs supply.

Miner Capitulation as a Mid‑Cycle Feature

Miner capitulation has historically marked late‑stage corrections rather than cycle tops. Elevated transaction fees from Ordinals/Runes activity helped offset reward cuts in 2024, but fee markets are episodic. If BTC prices dip while fees normalize, stressed miners may liquidate reserves-often a precondition for subsequent uptrends.

The Structural Bull Case Mow Emphasizes

Mow and other long‑term Bitcoiners point to a supply‑demand imbalance that strengthens into the late 2020s:

• Issuance compression: Post‑2024 halving issuance is ~164,250 BTC/year until the next halving-an all‑time low float for a globally traded asset.
• Institutional distribution rails: Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in the U.S. in 2024 and expanded in multiple jurisdictions, lowering operational and compliance frictions for pensions, RIAs, family offices, and corporates.
• Nation‑state and corporate adoption: Gradual balance‑sheet allocations and reserve diversification add sticky, price‑insensitive demand over time.
• Network monetization: L2/sidechain tooling (e.g., Lightning, Liquid; Taproot-enabled assets; fee markets boosted by Ordinals/Runes) improves Bitcoin’s economic density and miner incentives.

How a 2025 Pullback Can Seed a Decade‑Long Rally

1. Clean out excess leverage: Forced deleveraging reduces future downside volatility and sets a sturdier base.
2. Redistribute coins to strong hands: Selloffs move BTC from short‑term holders to long‑term holders (LTHs) with lower sell propensity.
3. Strengthen miner economics: Post‑capitulation, difficulty resets and fee improvements can restore margins, reducing structural sell pressure.
4. Let fundamentals compound: As rails mature (ETFs, custody, L2s), incremental capital faces chronically tight supply.

Watch These On‑Chain and Market Metrics

• LTH supply and exchange balances: Rising LTH supply and falling exchange inventories signal accumulation.
• Futures basis and funding: Neutralizing or negative funding post‑selloff suggests leverage has been cleared.
• Hash rate and difficulty: Stabilization after a drop can mark the end of miner capitulation.
• ETF flows and AUM: Persistent net inflows, even during price weakness, indicate inelastic demand.

Strategy Considerations for Crypto‑Native and Institutional Readers

This is not investment advice, but common frameworks in volatile phases include:

• Staggered entries: Dollar‑cost averaging or grid strategies through volatility bands.
• On‑chain confirmations: Wait for LTH supply growth, exchange outflows, and funding normalization before sizing up.
• Custody and operations: Tighten key management, multi‑sig policies, and rebalancing rules during turbulent markets.
• Hedging: Use options to cap downside while preserving upside in secular bull scenarios.
• Time‑horizon alignment: Separate trading from multi‑year allocation; avoid forcing long‑term capital into short‑term decisions.

Conclusion: Mow’s Message-Don’t Confuse the Weather with the Climate

Samson Mow’s view frames a 2025 Bitcoin bear market as weather, not climate. The climate-defined by shrinking issuance, institutional rails like spot ETFs, healthier miner economics, and broadening adoption-points to a secular uptrend that could persist across the next decade. For builders and allocators in crypto and web3, the playbook is clear: expect volatility, measure the right signals, and position for a market where time in the asset-more than timing the asset-may be the decisive edge.