What factors contributed to the surge in Fold’s revenue during Q4?

Fold Q4 Revenue Surge: CEO Predicts Bitcoin Rewards Will Eclipse Air Miles

Fold, the Bitcoin-back rewards app and Visa card issuer, closed Q4 with a sharp revenue surge-another signal that crypto-native loyalty programs are moving from niche to mainstream. As traditional rewards like air miles and cashback struggle to excite a younger, digital-first audience, Fold’s CEO predicts that Bitcoin rewards will eventually eclipse air miles as the dominant loyalty currency.

This shift has major implications for Bitcoin adoption, on-chain activity, and how brands structure incentive programs in a web3 world.

Fold’s Explosive Q4: What Drove the Revenue Surge?

Fold has been building since 2019, but the last few quarters have been particularly strong as Bitcoin and crypto interest returned in 2023-2024 and continued into 2025.

Key growth drivers

• Rising Bitcoin price: Higher BTC prices increased user interest and made rewards feel more valuable.
• Increased card spend: More users routing everyday purchases through the Fold Visa debit card.
• Merchant partnerships: Deeper integration with major retailers and online platforms.
• Gamified rewards: “Spin-the-wheel” mechanics, multipliers, and boosted rewards during promos.

A simplified view of how revenue scales with adoption:

Note: Exact private company figures vary by disclosure; estimates are based on publicly shared growth trends and typical neobank economics as of 2025.

Fold’s business model is structurally similar to fintech card issuers-earning from interchange fees, brand co-marketing deals, and premium subscriptions-but with one twist: the reward currency is Bitcoin instead of points.

From Air Miles to Satoshis: Why Bitcoin Rewards Are So Compelling

Fold’s CEO has argued that Bitcoin rewards will outcompete air miles on a long-enough timeline. For crypto users and forward-looking brands, that’s not just marketing-it’s a strategic thesis about loyalty economics.

1. Hard money vs. soft promises

Air miles and traditional loyalty points:

• Are centralized IOUs controlled by an airline or issuer
• Can be devalued at any time via chart changes or blackout restrictions
• Usually expire, forcing consumption on the issuer’s terms

Bitcoin rewards:

• Are programmable, bearer assets on an open monetary network
• Can be withdrawn to self-custody and used across borders
• Have no issuer-imposed expiry and transparent monetary policy

This shifts loyalty from “trust our rules” to “own your asset.”

2. Alignment with user psychology

Bitcoin rewards tap into:

• Hodl mentality – Users view sats as long-term savings, not disposable points
• Upside potential – If BTC appreciates, past purchases look smarter in hindsight
• On-ramp effect – Non-crypto natives start with “free Bitcoin,” then go deeper

For many, earning BTC feels more like investing than spending-without the friction of setting up an exchange account first.

3. Better fit for a global, digital-first world

Air miles are:

• Region-locked
• Airline-specific
• Tied to legacy travel systems

Bitcoin rewards are:

• Global by default
• Spendable anywhere BTC is accepted or swappable into stablecoins/fiat
• Natively compatible with Lightning Network, layer-2s, and web3 wallets

As commerce goes digital and borderless, a borderless reward asset has obvious advantages.

How Bitcoin Rewards Work Under the Hood

For a crypto-savvy audience, the interesting part is not just what Fold does, but how it works from an infrastructure and risk perspective.

Funding and hedging BTC rewards

Fold typically:

1. Receives interchange fees from card networks and banks.
2. Allocates a portion of that revenue to purchase BTC for rewards.
3. Uses hedging strategies or dynamic reward percentages to manage BTC price volatility.

Some operational strategies:

• Adjusting reward rates when BTC is highly volatile
• Offering limited-time boosts funded by marketing budgets
• Mixing fixed rebates (e.g., 1% BTC back) with gamified bonuses (e.g., wheel spins up to higher amounts)

Custody and settlement

• User rewards can be custodied by Fold or partner custodians initially.
• Advanced users can move sats to self-custody wallets or Lightning channels.
• Internally, Fold integrates with liquidity providers and exchanges to source BTC efficiently.

The design goal: hide complexity from mainstream users, while still letting power users opt into self-custody and Lightning-based payments.

Competitive Landscape: Why Traditional Loyalty Programs Are at Risk

Fold’s thesis isn’t happening in isolation. There’s a broader movement toward crypto-denominated rewards and loyalty primitives.

Emerging crypto loyalty models

• Bitcoin rewards cards: Fold, Gemini, and others offering BTC or crypto-back.
• Stablecoin rewards: Some neobanks and web3 wallets offering USDC/USDT cashback.
• NFT-based loyalty: Brands issuing NFTs that unlock perks, access, or governance.
• On-chain points: Protocol-specific points that may convert to tokens or be used in governance.

Comparison: Air Miles vs. Bitcoin Rewards

For airlines and banks, this creates a strategic dilemma: double down on closed ecosystems or embrace open, crypto-native assets that users can actually own.

What This Means for Bitcoin, Web3, and Everyday Users

Fold’s Q4 revenue surge and bold prediction about Bitcoin rewards overtaking air miles highlight a few broader crypto trends.

1. Bitcoin as a consumer-grade asset

Bitcoin is no longer just:

• A macro hedge
• A speculation vehicle
• A store-of-value narrative

It’s becoming a default digital asset people passively accumulate through routine spending-similar to how they accumulated points, but with far more sovereignty.

2. Stealth onboarding to web3

Bitcoin rewards effectively:

1. Get users comfortable seeing a BTC balance.
2. Nudge them into withdrawals, self-custody, and Lightning.
3. Make them more receptive to other web3 primitives (stablecoins, NFTs, DeFi) down the line.

The path is “earn → hold → explore,” not “KYC, wire funds, learn trading.”

3. Pressure on legacy loyalty to innovate

As more consumers ask for crypto rewards, enterprise loyalty teams will face pressure to:

• Integrate on-chain assets into their rewards stack
• Support crypto payouts or tokenized points
• Re-think closed ledgers in favor of composable, interoperable systems

Conclusion: Fold Foreshadows the Future of Loyalty

Fold’s strong Q4 revenue and its CEO’s conviction that Bitcoin rewards will eclipse air miles are more than a company success story-they’re a signal of a structural shift.

For the crypto and blockchain ecosystem, this represents:

• A powerful adoption vector for Bitcoin and Lightning
• A real-world testbed for open, programmable loyalty
• A market opportunity for builders creating wallets, infrastructure, and protocols around crypto-native rewards

As traditional loyalty programs contend with devaluation, friction, and user fatigue, loyalty paid in hard, global, censorship-resistant money is compelling. If current trends continue, the “miles vs. sats” debate may not last long-and future travelers might measure their perks not in points, but in satoshis.