How does ACH transaction volume compare to other payment methods?
Galaxy Predicts Stablecoins to Surpass ACH Transaction Volume by 2026: What This Means for the Future of Payments
Introduction: Stablecoins vs. ACH Is No Longer a Niche Comparison
Galaxy Digital’s research arm projects that stablecoins could surpass the U.S. ACH network in annual transaction volume as soon as 2026. While bold, the thesis reflects the rapid ascent of on-chain settlement: public data shows stablecoins settled roughly $9-10 trillion in 2023 and climbed further in 2024, driven by USDT and USDC activity across Tron and Ethereum. For context, the ACH Network processed 31.5 billion payments worth $80.1 trillion in 2023 (Nacha). If current growth trajectories hold, stablecoins may challenge the scale of legacy rails within the next cycle.
Stablecoins and ACH: Scope, Speed, and Scale
ACH is the backbone of U.S. bank-to-bank transfers; stablecoins are global, 24/7 digital cash on public ledgers. The comparison isn’t apples-to-apples, but it’s useful for understanding shifting settlement preferences.
| Attribute | Stablecoins (USDT/USDC et al.) | ACH (U.S.) |
|---|---|---|
| Scope | Global, public blockchains (Ethereum, Tron, L2s) | Domestic U.S. bank network |
| Availability | 24/7/365 final settlement on-chain | Business days; same-day windows available |
| 2023 Value | ~$9-10T settled on-chain (industry dashboards) | $80.1T (Nacha) |
| Primary Uses | FX/remittances, trading, merchant settlement, B2B | Payroll, bill pay, B2B, consumer transfers |
| Cost & Speed | Low fees; seconds to minutes (chain-dependent) | Low fees; hours to days (same-day available) |
Inside the Forecast: Growth Curves and Scenarios
Galaxy’s prediction assumes continued double-digit growth in stablecoin settlement and modest, single-digit growth for ACH. The drivers are clear: expansion of low-cost L2s, Tron’s dominance in emerging markets, better fiat on/off-ramps, and increasing merchant and B2B adoption.
| Year | Stablecoin Settlement (Est.) | ACH Settlement (Historical/Est.) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 (actual) | $9-10T | $80.1T | Stablecoins led by Tron/Ethereum |
| 2024 (est.) | $12-15T | $80-85T | ACH growth modest; stablecoins accelerate |
| 2025 (est.) | $18-25T | $82-88T | Regulated use cases expand; MiCA take-up |
| 2026 (scenario) | $30-50T+ | $85-90T | High-growth path could close gap |
Important: ACH is U.S.-only and highly mature; stablecoins are global and still early, so any crossover will be driven by international flows, crypto market cycles, and regulatory clarity. The above ranges illustrate how Galaxy’s thesis could materialize-not a guarantee.
Why Stablecoins Are Scaling Faster Than Legacy Rails
1) Real demand for dollar settlement outside the U.S.
- USDT adoption in LATAM, MENA, and Asia for remittances, savings, and merchant payments.
- On-chain FX corridors that cut intermediaries and weekend downtime.
2) Trading, treasury, and on-chain commerce
- Stablecoins as base collateral across CEXs/DEXs, derivatives, and RWAs.
- Programmable payments, subscription rails, and B2B settlements on L2s with sub-cent fees.
3) Better infrastructure and compliance
- Cheaper finality via rollups; account abstraction and gas sponsorship improve UX.
- Enhanced KYC/AML tooling, travel-rule solutions, and permissioned pools for enterprises.
4) Regulatory momentum
- EU’s MiCA rules for e-money tokens (EMTs) and asset-referenced tokens (ARTs) phasing in 2024-2025.
- UK, Singapore, Hong Kong, and UAE frameworks enabling regulated issuers and pilots.
- U.S. stablecoin legislation remains pending but state-level and OCC-supervised models are advancing.
Implications for Banks, Fintechs, and Web3 Builders
Banks and payment processors
- Integrate stablecoin rails alongside ACH, RTP, and FedNow to offer 24/7 settlement and cross-border reach.
- Custody and segregation of reserves; real-time attestations; T-bill yield pass-through products.
- Interoperability strategies across chains (e.g., CCIP, IBC, LayerZero, Wormhole) with robust bridge risk frameworks.
Enterprises and marketplaces
- Use stablecoins for supplier payouts, treasury sweeps, and global marketplace disbursements.
- Adopt compliant, permissioned pools for B2B; automate invoices with programmable escrow.
- Hedge gas and FX exposure; select chains with deep liquidity and predictable fees.
Web3 applications
- Abstract gas, embed KYC tiers where needed, and support major stablecoin standards (ERC-20, TRC-20).
- Offer fiat on/off-ramps and local currency pairs; optimize for remittance corridors.
Risks and Watch-Items Before 2026
- Issuer and reserve risk: transparency, custody concentration, and depeg scenarios.
- Chain-level risks: congestion, MEV, liveness, and smart contract exploits (especially in bridges).
- Policy shifts: U.S. legislation, MiCA compliance caps for large non-euro EMTs, and travel-rule enforcement.
- Competition: tokenized deposits, CBDC pilots, and instant payment networks (RTP, FedNow) for domestic use cases.
Conclusion: The Next Payments Rail Is Programmable, Global, and Always-On
Galaxy’s call that stablecoins could surpass ACH by 2026 spotlights a structural change: programmable, dollar-denominated settlement is moving on-chain at global scale. Whether 2026 or shortly after, the direction is clear. Payments players that combine the strengths of both worlds-ACH/RTP/FedNow domestically and compliant stablecoin rails internationally-will set the pace. For crypto-native builders, the mandate is equally direct: ship products that are safe, compliant, interoperable, and so simple that end users barely notice they are using web3.
