What new data suggests that Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle might be broken?

Is Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Broken? New Data Reveals Surprising Insights

Bitcoin’s famed 4-year cycle-anchored to the halving that cuts block rewards-has guided crypto investors for over a decade. But the 2024 halving was different. Bitcoin set a new all‑time high before the halving, spot ETFs became dominant buyers, and fees briefly eclipsed block rewards as the Runes protocol launched. As of 2025, fresh data suggests the cycle isn’t “broken,” but it is evolving into a liquidity- and structure-driven regime with halving effects that are less clockwork and more contextual.

Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle, in Context

Historically, halvings have reduced new supply and preceded major bull markets that peaked 12-18 months later. The 2024-2025 period deviates from that script.

Key takeaway

The 2024 cycle broke the “post-halving ATH” norm, indicating that structural demand and market plumbing now matter as much as supply issuance.

New 2024-2025 Data: ETFs, Issuance, and Supply Dynamics

Three structural shifts are reshaping price cycles:

• Spot ETF demand: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (approved in Jan 2024) and later listings in other jurisdictions channeled steady, transparent flows into BTC. Cumulatively, these vehicles now custody hundreds of thousands of BTC and tens of billions in AUM, becoming a persistent buyer that can absorb miner issuance many times over during strong inflow periods.
• Lower net issuance: The 2024 halving reduced issuance from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block-cutting annual supply growth to roughly 0.8-0.9%. With exchange balances in a multi‑year downtrend and a large share of coins illiquid, marginal demand has outsized price impact.
• Fee market maturation: The Runes protocol launch at block 840,000 sparked a fee spike that briefly dwarfed the block subsidy. While not persistent at launch levels, fees have become a more meaningful slice of miner revenue during congestion, improving long‑run security incentives.

On-Chain and Market Microstructure: What’s Really Driving Price?

On-chain positioning

• Long-term holders (LTHs): Distribution into the 2024 rally was visible as LTH supply dipped, consistent with profit-taking into new demand. Subsequent re-accumulation phases have been shallower than prior cycles, consistent with institutional buy‑the‑dip behavior.
• Short-term holder cost basis: The STH realized price has acted as a behavioral pivot; sustained price above it historically supports uptrends, while breaks below invite volatility.
• MVRV and realized profit: In 2024’s pre-halving ATH, several exuberance gauges rose but did not match 2017/2021 blowoff extremes, hinting at a more distributionally balanced market.

Derivatives and liquidity

• Basis and funding: ETF-driven cash-and-carry trades compressed futures premia at times, tempering speculative excess and moderating drawdowns versus prior cycles.
• Open interest: Elevated perpetual OI continues to amplify intraday moves around macro prints and ETF flow inflections.
• Correlation regime: BTC’s correlation to equities has been variable but lower on multi-month windows than in 2022, while occasional spikes reappear during rate surprises and liquidity shocks.

Miner Economics After the 2024 Halving

• Hashrate at records, hashprice compressed: Network security hit new highs into 2025, while revenue per TH/s declined post-halving, pressuring higher-cost operators.
• Fees as a buffer: Spikes tied to Ordinals/Runes and mempool congestion provided episodic relief, but not a full offset to the subsidy cut.
• Behavioral implications: Miner balance drawdowns and consolidation remain risks after price retracements; conversely, strong ETF inflows can neutralize miner sell pressure quickly in uptrends.

So, Is the 4-Year Cycle Broken? Three Scenarios for 2025-2026

1. Elongated, liquidity-led cycle: Halving still matters via issuance, but cycle peaks and troughs stretch with global liquidity, ETF flows, and macro rates. Expect multiple distribution/accumulation phases rather than a single post-halving blowoff.
2. Two-wave structure: A pre-halving wave (ETF launch + anticipation) followed by a digestion phase and a second impulse if net flows and macro ease into 2025. This fits the pre-halving ATH observation.
3. New regime decoupling: Bitcoin becomes increasingly flow- and fee-driven, with halving effects second to structural demand, exchange balance trends, and on-chain liquidity. Volatility clusters persist, but timing drifts from the 4-year cadence.

Actionable signals to watch

• Net spot ETF flows and primary market creations/redemptions
• STH/LTH supply shifts and realized profit multiples
• Exchange balances and stablecoin liquidity
• Miner balances, hashprice, and fee share of revenue
• Futures basis, funding, and OI concentration

Conclusion

The 4-year cycle isn’t strictly “broken,” but it’s no longer the market’s metronome. The 2024 halving reduced supply growth to under 1%, yet the timing of highs and corrections reflects the rise of spot ETFs, a deeper fee market, and liquidity-sensitive flows. For crypto-native and institutional investors alike, the edge now lies in marrying halving-aware supply analysis with real-time flow, on-chain positioning, and derivatives structure. In the 2025 landscape, halving sets the stage-flows write the script.