What historical trends might predict the timing of Bitcoin’s next bull run?

Signs Bitcoin May Soar to $150K: When Will the Next Bull Cycle Begin?

Bitcoin’s 2024 halving, growing institutional demand, and tightening supply dynamics have reignited forecasts of a six‑figure BTC price. Many analysts now see $100K-$150K as a realistic target in the current or next cycle, not just a moonshot. But what evidence actually supports the idea that Bitcoin could reach $150K-and when might the next major bull phase truly begin?

This article breaks down key on-chain signals, macro drivers, and market structure indicators that crypto-native and web3-focused investors are watching.

Bitcoin’s Macro Setup: Why $150K Is Back on the Table

Halving Economics and Supply Shock

Bitcoin’s fourth halving occurred in April 2024, cutting block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, halvings have preceded major rallies as new supply entering the market is reduced.

Post-halving price dynamics in prior cycles:

If the pattern roughly holds, the strongest part of the cycle tends to occur:

• 6-18 months after each halving
• As reduced issuance meets rising demand, particularly from institutions

For Bitcoin to reach $150K, a similar post-halving expansion in market cap would need to play out, amplified by new capital inflows.

Institutional Demand, Spot ETFs, and the $150K Thesis

Spot Bitcoin ETFs as a Structural Demand Engine

The approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 (e.g., BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise) changed Bitcoin’s demand profile. These vehicles allow traditional investors, retirement accounts, and asset managers to gain exposure without dealing with private keys or exchanges.

Key implications:

• Lower friction for mainstream capital
• Regulated wrappers that large institutions are allowed to hold
• Daily net inflows that act as persistent buy pressure

If ETF inflows stay net positive while miner issuance is halved, BTC’s float available for trading tightens, making upside moves more explosive.

ETF-driven price scenarios (illustrative, not predictions):

*Ranges are speculative and depend heavily on macro conditions, leverage, and velocity of flows.

Bitcoin as “Digital Gold” in a Volatile Macro Environment

From 2023-2025, macro conditions have remained unstable:

• Inflation above central bank targets in many regions
• Elevated sovereign debt and widening fiscal deficits
• Debates around CBDCs and capital controls

For institutional allocators, this makes Bitcoin attractive as:

• A non-sovereign, scarce asset
• A portfolio diversifier with low long-term correlation to equities and bonds
• A potential hedge against fiat debasement

Even a 1-3% portfolio allocation among major asset managers could be enough to sustain a path toward $150K if combined with long-term HODLing behavior.

On-Chain Signals: Are Whales and Long-Term Holders Positioning for a Bull Run?

On-chain analytics provide a transparent view into Bitcoin’s investor base. Several metrics historically have preceded strong bull moves.

1. Long-Term Holder (LTH) Supply and Dormancy

Bull cycles often start when:

• Long-Term Holder Supply (coins dormant >155 days) reaches or stays near all-time highs
• Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for LTHs shows they are reluctant to sell into early rallies

Signs to watch:

• Rising LTH supply = conviction and reduced liquid float
• LTHs holding despite new highs = room for parabola before heavy profit-taking

2. Exchange Balances and Illiquid Supply

When BTC leaves exchanges and moves into cold storage or custody solutions, it suggests long-term conviction.

Indicators that support a bullish thesis:

• Exchange reserves trending down over months or years
• Illiquid supply growing, meaning more BTC is held in wallets with a history of low selling

This creates a “coiled spring” environment where:

• New demand (e.g., ETFs, corporate treasuries) buys from a thinner and more stubborn supply
• Price responds quickly to marginal changes in flows

Timing the Next Bitcoin Bull Cycle: Key Catalysts and Risk Factors

Cyclical Timing Signals

Historically, the structure of a Bitcoin cycle has included:

1. Pre-halving rally (narrative anticipation, positioning)
2. Post-halving re-accumulation (choppy sideways with dips)
3. Expansion phase (rapid upside, media attention, new retail inflows)
4. Euphoria and blow-off top (parabolic rise, extreme leverage, altcoin mania)

Given the 2024 halving:

• Late 2024 to 2025 is the window many analysts watch for a sustained expansion phase
• The path to $150K, if it occurs, is more likely in an expansion or euphoria phase, not immediately after the halving

Macro and Policy Catalysts

The bull thesis strengthens if:

• Central banks pivot back toward easier monetary policy
• Regulatory clarity increases in major markets (US, EU, Asia)
• Additional jurisdictions approve spot ETFs or ETPs
• Corporations resume BTC treasury allocations or BTC becomes more integrated into payment rails

Headwinds that could delay or cap a bull cycle:

• Prolonged high interest rates and tight liquidity
• Hostile regulations targeting exchanges, DeFi, or self-custody
• Major security incident, protocol-level bug, or systemic failure in a large crypto institution

What Crypto-Native Investors Should Watch

For traders, builders, and long-term HODLers in the crypto and web3 ecosystem, the path to $150K BTC is less about guaranteed targets and more about probabilities and positioning.

High-Value Data Points and Metrics

Monitor:

• ETF flow data: daily net inflows/outflows
• On-chain LTH metrics: supply, SOPR, realized price bands
• Derivatives data: funding rates, open interest, options skew
• Macro signals: real yields, DXY (US dollar index), liquidity conditions
• Regulatory news: ETF approvals, exchange enforcement actions, taxation frameworks

Strategy Considerations (Not Financial Advice)

• Use dollar-cost averaging (DCA) rather than trying to time exact bottoms
• Diversify across BTC, ETH, and core infrastructure or blue-chip DeFi / L2 plays
• Manage risk with clear allocation targets and avoid over-leverage
• For builders, position your product for a potential influx of users and capital if a bull market accelerates

Conclusion: Is $150K Bitcoin Inevitable or Just Plausible?

A Bitcoin price of $150K in this or the next cycle is plausible, not guaranteed. The core pillars of the bullish thesis are:

• A structurally shrinking new supply post-2024 halving
• Powerful new demand channels via spot ETFs and institutional adoption
• On-chain evidence of long-term accumulation and reduced exchange float
• A macro backdrop that favors scarce, non-sovereign assets

The next bull cycle is most likely to gain full momentum within 6-18 months after the 2024 halving, putting a potential expansion window in late 2024 through 2025, assuming no major macro or regulatory shocks.

For crypto and web3 participants, the key is not guessing a single price target, but understanding the structural forces at play-and positioning thoughtfully for whichever version of the next Bitcoin supercycle unfolds.