How do market trends affect Bitcoin’s performance according to experts?

Unpacking Bitcoin’s Struggles: Samson Mow Reveals What’s Weighing It Down

Bitcoin may still be crypto’s flagship asset, but its path in 2024-2025 has been anything but smooth. Volatility, shifting macro conditions, and a changing regulatory landscape have left many wondering why BTC’s price action and adoption feel “stuck” relative to past cycles.

Blockstream’s former CSO and Jan3 CEO Samson Mow, a vocal Bitcoin maximalist and key advocate for nation‑state Bitcoin adoption, has been outspoken about what’s holding Bitcoin back-and why the long‑term thesis remains intact.

This article unpacks the main headwinds Mow frequently highlights, and how they interact with macro forces, altcoin markets, and Bitcoin’s own technical roadmap.

Bitcoin’s Macro Headwinds: Liquidity, Rates, and Risk Sentiment

1. Tightening Liquidity and High Interest Rates

Global liquidity and interest rates are central to risk asset performance, and Bitcoin is no exception.

Key macro pressures weighing on BTC include:

• Higher-for-longer rates:
• Central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, kept rates elevated through 2024 to fight inflation.
• Higher yields on Treasuries make “risk-off” assets more attractive relative to Bitcoin.

• Reduced speculative leverage:
• Expensive credit and stricter risk management reduce leveraged positions in crypto.
• Less leverage means slower, more “grindy” upside even when fundamentals are bullish.

Mow often frames this as a short- to medium‑term drag on price, not a thesis-breaker. The core narrative-Bitcoin as non-sovereign, hard money-remains macro-positive in the long run, especially as sovereign debt and currency risks accumulate.

2. Regulatory Uncertainty and ETF Dynamics

The regulatory picture is mixed across jurisdictions:

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs (U.S. and beyond)
• U.S. spot BTC ETFs, approved in early 2024, have driven billions in inflows.
• However, ETF flows are lumpy: periods of strong inflow alternate with outflows as macro sentiment shifts.

• Ongoing policy ambiguity
• Inconsistent treatment of crypto exchanges and on‑ramps impacts liquidity.
• Some regulators lump BTC in with broader “crypto risk,” despite its distinct design and regulatory status in many regions.

From Mow’s perspective, Bitcoin’s regulatory path is clearer than most altcoins-but ongoing uncertainty at the infrastructure layer (banks, brokers, exchanges) can still weigh on adoption and price discovery.

Structural Sell Pressure: Miners, Derivatives, and Short-Term Holders

1. Post-Halving Miner Economics

The April 2024 halving cut block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. While bullish for long‑term scarcity, it also changes miner behavior in the short run.

Miner-related pressures Samson Mow and others flag:

• Forced selling to cover costs
• Less BTC per block + relatively high energy costs = thinner margins.
• Weaker miners sell more of their block rewards (or treasury) to stay afloat.

• Hashrate competition
• Hashrate has continued trending up, increasing competition.
• Inefficient miners capitulate, which can trigger temporary supply shocks but also short-term volatility.

2. Derivatives and “Paper Bitcoin”

Mow has repeatedly criticized the impact of excessive derivatives and “paper BTC” on price dynamics:

• Perpetual swaps and futures
• Funding rates, open interest, and aggressive shorting can suppress spot-led rallies.
• Liquidation cascades, both up and down, distort organic price discovery.

• Custodial rehypothecation
• Centralized platforms may lend or rehypothecate user BTC, creating more claims than underlying coins.
• This “synthetic supply” can cap price when demand is not flowing directly into self-custody or cold storage.

Short-term, these instruments amplify volatility. Long-term, Mow argues they reinforce the incentive to hold actual BTC in self-custody, not IOUs.

Altcoins, Speculation, and Narrative Dilution

1. Capital Rotation into Altcoins and Memecoins

One of Mow’s consistent criticisms is that speculative altcoin cycles dilute Bitcoin’s capital inflows and confuse new entrants.

Typical patterns he highlights:

1. Newcomers enter through BTC or ETH.
2. They rotate into “high beta” altcoins and memecoins seeking faster gains.
3. Liquidity spreads thin across thousands of tokens.
4. When the cycle turns, capital evaporates, and the broader market (including BTC) suffers from risk-off selling.

While this doesn’t change Bitcoin’s fundamentals, it can:

• Delay sustained BTC price appreciation.
• Increase correlation with broader “crypto risk” assets.
• Distract from Bitcoin’s core use case as a monetary asset and settlement layer.

2. Competing Narratives: Smart Contracts, DeFi, and Web3

The market’s attention is fragmented across:

• Smart contract platforms (e.g., Ethereum, Solana)
• Layer-1 competitors
• DeFi protocols and yield strategies
• NFT and gaming ecosystems

Mow often argues that many of these are, at best, experimental and, at worst, outright scams. In his view, this:

• Diverts developer talent from Bitcoin infrastructure and Layer-2s.
• Confuses institutions and governments about what is durable versus transient in crypto.
• Creates cycles of disillusionment that spill over into BTC sentiment.

Bitcoin’s Fundamentals vs. Short-Term Friction

Despite headwinds, Mow’s thesis is that Bitcoin’s fundamentals are strengthening, even if price action feels sluggish.

1. On-Chain and Adoption Metrics

Key trends through 2024-2025:

• Growing long-term holder supply
• A higher percentage of BTC is held for 1+ years, signaling conviction.
• Increasing Lightning and Layer-2 development
• Lightning Network capacity, while not exploding, is becoming more robust and enterprise-friendly.
• Nation-state and institutional interest
• El Salvador continues to double down on Bitcoin-as-legal-tender.
• Other countries explore BTC-related reserves, mining, or legal frameworks.

A concise snapshot:

2. The “Game Theory” of Nation-State Adoption

Mow’s work with Jan3 focuses heavily on nation‑state Bitcoin strategies:

• Sovereign debt concerns push some countries to consider BTC as a long-term hedge.
• Energy monetization via mining enables resource‑rich nations to convert stranded or excess energy into BTC.
• First-mover advantage: early adopters can attract crypto capital, talent, and tourism.

In his view, the game theory is asymmetric:

• Once a handful of states hold Bitcoin in reserves, others are incentivized to follow.
• This can flip the narrative from “speculative asset” to “strategic reserve” over time, overpowering the current frictions.

What Crypto Builders and Investors Should Watch

For a crypto and web3 audience, the key signals to monitor are not just price, but structural shifts:

1. Macro regime changes
• Rate cuts or renewed liquidity injections can reignite risk-on flows into BTC.

2. Spot ETF flows and custody trends
• Are institutions buying and holding, or trading around volatility?

3. Miner health and hashrate distribution
• Sustainable miner economics reduce forced selling and centralization risks.

4. Shift from speculative altcoin mania to quality infrastructure
• Capital and developers moving back into hard-money and sound-infrastructure narratives is long-term bullish for BTC.

5. Nation-state announcements
• Legal tender, mining partnerships, or reserve disclosures can structurally alter demand.

Conclusion: Short-Term Weight, Long-Term Gravity

Samson Mow’s critique of Bitcoin’s current struggles doesn’t undermine his conviction-it clarifies the battlefield:

• Macro conditions, derivatives, speculative altcoin cycles, and regulatory friction are short- to medium-term weights.
• Scarcity, decentralization, increasing institutional access, and nation‑state interest are long-term gravitational forces pulling BTC toward broader monetary relevance.

For builders, traders, and investors in crypto and web3, the core takeaway is to separate noise from signal. Bitcoin’s price may be temporarily constrained, but the underlying thesis Mow champions-Bitcoin as the base layer of a new, resilient monetary system-continues to deepen, cycle after cycle.