What insights did the 21Shares founder provide regarding Bitcoin’s future?
Why Bitcoin May Not Match January’s Record Surge: Insights from 21Shares Founder
Bitcoin’s blistering run during January’s peak excitement around spot ETFs set a high bar for momentum. As markets look for a repeat, several structural and macro factors suggest the next leg may look different. Drawing on themes frequently emphasized by 21Shares co-founder Hany Rashwan and broader market data through 2025, here’s why BTC may not replicate January’s record pace-and what to watch next.
ETF Euphoria Was a One-Time Shock: ARK 21Shares and the New Demand Curve
January’s surge coincided with a rare confluence: the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and the fastest institutional onboarding the asset has ever seen. Products like the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), BlackRock’s IBIT, and Fidelity’s FBTC unlocked new demand from RIAs, broker-dealers, and fund platforms that previously couldn’t access BTC directly.
- Launch dynamics: “Day 1” and “Month 1” liquidity spikes are hard to reproduce once the onboarding wave normalizes.
- Flow rotation: GBTC outflows initially offset some inflows into new funds; over time this rotation stabilized, softening net flow volatility.
- Allocation cadence: After initial model allocations, many advisors rebalance quarterly or semiannually-reducing the odds of another January-style burst.
| Catalyst | January Dynamic | Now (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Spot ETF Launch | New capital access + record trading volumes | Flows persist, but pace normalized |
| GBTC Rotation | Heavy outflows offsetting peers’ inflows | Less drag; net flows smoother |
| Advisor Allocations | Front-loaded model uptake | Periodic rebalancing cycles |
| Liquidity Shock | One-time structural re-rating | Incremental growth, not a spike |
Macro Liquidity and Rates: A Headwind to “Instant Replay”
Even with ETF rails in place, macro matters. Since late 2024 and into 2025, markets have navigated uncertainty around inflation stickiness, the trajectory of policy rates, and global risk appetite. That cocktail tends to cap “escape velocity” moves.
- Higher-for-longer risk: If rate cuts are slower or shallower than hoped, risk premia stay elevated, muting aggressive bid-chasing.
- Dollar dynamics: A firm U.S. dollar often crimp crypto risk rotation from global participants.
- Cross-asset volatility: Equities and credit wobble can pause crypto inflows, even when fundamentals improve.
Post-Halving Supply and Miner Behavior: Less Narrative Juice, More Grind
Bitcoin’s fourth halving in April 2024 halved block rewards, but the “sell-the-news” and delayed impact patterns are well documented. As of 2025, several realities temper a runaway rally:
- Miner selling and consolidation: Higher breakevens and lower hashprice pushed weaker miners to sell more BTC or merge-creating intermittent supply overhangs.
- Diminishing novelty: Halving effects are increasingly priced by sophisticated participants; narrative beta fades faster each cycle.
- On-chain velocity: While long-term holders remain strong, realized profits near prior highs can spur supply when momentum stalls.
Derivatives Structure and the Basis: Volatility Compression Limits Parabolic Moves
January’s spot-led surge was amplified by a supportive derivatives backdrop. Into 2025, that structure is more balanced:
- Lower funding spikes: Perpetual swap funding rates and futures basis tightened versus launch month extremes, reducing forced momentum.
- Basis trades: Institutional basis strategies (long spot/short futures) grew with ETFs, dampening volatility and capping upside blow-offs.
- Option skew: More two-way options flow and higher put demand during risk-off periods keeps tops more distributive than explosive.
Stablecoin Supply and Liquidity Lanes
Stablecoin float-often a proxy for sidelined crypto purchasing power-expanded through 2024-2025, led by USDT and USDC. However, growth has been steadier than January’s step change. Without a fresh acceleration in stablecoin issuance or fiat ramps via ETFs, expecting another “cliff up” move is optimistic.
What 21Shares’ Perspective Implies for the Next Phase
21Shares has consistently emphasized infrastructure, access, and education over hype. That lens suggests the next BTC leg is more likely to be durable than vertical:
- Adoption curve: ETF penetration into advisor platforms is ongoing-measured in quarters and years, not days.
- Product mix: Beyond BTC, diversified ETPs and staking-enabled exposures in global markets broaden the investor base.
- Compliance rails: Clearer custody, tax reporting, and qualified-custodian support invite conservative allocators at a gradual pace.
Key Indicators to Watch
- Net ETF flows across IBIT, FBTC, ARKB, and peers (sustained positive beats spikes).
- Stablecoin market cap growth and exchange netflows.
- Miner reserve changes and hash rate trends post-consolidation.
- Perp funding rates, futures basis, and options skew for signs of froth or stress.
- Macro catalysts: rate decisions, liquidity programs, and USD trend.
Conclusion: From Euphoria to Execution
January’s record surge was a structural re-rating catalyzed by the debut of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, including ARK 21Shares’ ARKB. Replicating that magnitude requires another singular shock-something markets rarely deliver on command. Instead, 2025’s Bitcoin story looks like steady institutionalization: normalized ETF flows, disciplined derivatives, post-halving supply dynamics, and macro-sensitive risk appetite.
For crypto-native and web3 builders, that’s constructive. Less noise, more signal. Price discovery driven by real adoption and better market plumbing tends to build higher floors-even if the ceilings take longer to reach.
