– What risks are currently facing Bitcoin investors and the broader market?

Will Bitcoin Hit $90K Again? Long-Term Holders Sell Off as Bulls Face New Risks

Bitcoin’s sharp rallies and sudden corrections keep one question front and center for crypto investors: can BTC realistically revisit or break $90,000 in the current cycle?
As of 2025, on-chain data shows long-term holders (LTHs) have been selling into strength, even as macro conditions and regulatory shifts create new headwinds for bulls.

This article breaks down the key drivers behind Bitcoin’s next major move, the impact of LTH sell pressure, and what risks and catalysts traders and builders in crypto and web3 should be watching.

The 90K Question: Where Bitcoin Stands Now

After the 2024 post-halving period and strong inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, BTC pushed into new price territory, then faced profit-taking and macro-based volatility. The discussion has shifted from “if” to “when and under what conditions” Bitcoin could challenge or exceed $90K again.

Key factors currently shaping BTC’s path:

• Spot ETF flows & institutional adoption
• Long-term holder supply behavior
• Macro environment (rates, liquidity, risk appetite)
• Regulation in the US, EU, and Asia
• Crypto-native leverage and derivatives positioning

Even as Bitcoin matures as a macro asset, on-chain supply dynamics remain one of the clearest signals for medium- to long-term price trajectories.

Long-Term Holders Are Selling: Bullish or Bearish?

Understanding Long-Term Holder (LTH) Supply

Long-term holders are typically defined as addresses that have held BTC for 155+ days. Historically, they:

• Accumulate heavily in bear markets or deep corrections
• Distribute into strength during late bull phases
• Provide a “floor” of illiquid supply that supports long-term uptrends

When LTHs start significantly reducing their holdings, it often coincides with:

1. Late bull-market euphoria
2. Post-breakout profit-taking after new all-time highs
3. Elevated volatility and local or cyclical tops

Why LTH Sell-Offs Matter

A notable LTH supply drawdown tends to:

• Increase active supply available on the market
• Put downward pressure on price if demand doesn’t scale proportionally
• Signal that “smart money” or early-cycle accumulators are realizing profits

Yet, this isn’t always purely bearish. Historically, major bull runs have included multiple LTH distribution phases within a broader upward trend.

Simplified view of LTH behavior by cycle phase

Current data (2024-2025 context) shows LTH supply has stopped making new highs and is trending down, consistent with a later-stage bull environment or a mature phase of the current cycle.

New Risks for Bitcoin Bulls in 2025

While long-term fundamentals like fixed supply and increasing institutional acceptance are still intact, several new or intensified risks face BTC bulls targeting the $90K region.

1. Macro and Liquidity Risks

• Interest Rates & Policy:

Central banks are increasingly data-dependent. Any surprise hawkish tone or slower-than-expected easing can pressure risk assets including BTC.

• Correlation With Tech & Equities:

Bitcoin has periodically shown higher correlation with Nasdaq and high-beta tech. A sharp equity correction could spill over into crypto.

• Dollar Strength:

A stronger USD often weighs on BTC-denominated returns for global investors.

2. Regulatory & Policy Headwinds

• US Enforcement & Rulemaking:

While Bitcoin enjoys commodity-like treatment, broader crypto enforcement can still hurt sentiment and capital flows into the ecosystem.

• Stablecoin Rules & On-Ramp Friction:

Tighter rules on stablecoins or exchanges may indirectly reduce liquidity and leverage available for BTC trading.

• Global Divergence:

The EU’s MiCA framework, Asian licensing regimes, and emerging markets’ capital controls create fragmented liquidity and regulatory arbitrage.

3. ETF Dynamics & Institutional Behavior

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs reshaped market structure:

• Positive:
• Easier access for RIAs, funds, and treasuries
• Transparent, regulated exposure for conservative allocators
• Risk:
• ETF flows can flip from net inflows to outflows during risk-off episodes
• A few large issuers now control meaningful BTC balances, introducing concentration and headline risk

If ETF flows stall or reverse while LTHs are distributing, the demand side may fail to absorb additional supply near prior highs.

4. Crypto-Native Leverage & Derivatives

Perpetual swaps, options, and basis trades amplify both rallies and corrections:

• High open interest + thin spot liquidity = exaggerated wicks and long/short squeezes
• Overly bullish positioning near key levels (e.g., $80K-$90K) often precedes liquidation cascades
• Options markets can pin price around large strike clusters into expiry, affecting the speed of any breakout

What Needs to Happen for Bitcoin to Revisit $90K?

For BTC to sustainably revisit or surpass $90,000, several structural and cyclical elements likely need to align.

1. Renewed Demand Shock

• Continued or renewed positive ETF flows
• Increased corporate and institutional allocation (treasuries, family offices, macro funds)
• Broader adoption of BTC as collateral in DeFi and CeFi

2. Stabilizing or Supportive Macro

• Moderating or falling interest rates, improving global liquidity
• Absence of a major recession or credit event that forces widespread de-risking
• At least neutral, ideally bullish, sentiment in risk assets

3. Healthy On-Chain Structure

You’d want to see:

1. LTH Distribution Slowing
• A plateau or re-accumulation phase indicating “strong hands” stepping back in
• Short-Term Holder (STH) Reset
• Periodic corrections to shake out leveraged late entrants
• Exchange Balances Drifting Lower
• Signaling accumulation and self-custody rather than immediate sell pressure

4. Market Structure & Liquidity Improvements

• Tighter spot-derivatives spreads and deeper order books
• Fewer extreme funding spikes, indicating more balanced leverage
• Growth of BTC rails in web3: rollups, cross-chain bridges, and BTC-based DeFi (ordinals, Runes, sidechains, L2s)

Why Web3 Builders and Crypto Natives Should Care

Even if you’re more focused on DeFi, NFTs, DAOs, or L2 scaling, Bitcoin’s trajectory influences the entire ecosystem:

• Liquidity Anchor: BTC is still a key collateral asset and sentiment barometer.
• User On-Ramps: Many new users first buy BTC via ETFs or centralized exchanges before exploring DeFi and web3.
• BTC in Web3:
• Tokenized BTC on EVM chains
• Bitcoin L2s and sidechains powering smart contracts
• Ordinals and programmable Bitcoin primitives driving new narratives

Developers and founders should track BTC volatility and macro context when timing launches, token distributions, or liquidity mining programs.

Conclusion: $90K Is Possible, But the Path Is Risky

Bitcoin revisiting $90,000 is plausible in this or a later cycle, but the path is unlikely to be linear:

• Long-term holders are selling, historically a sign of a maturing bull phase.
• New macro, regulatory, and structural risks mean pullbacks and volatility can be sharper and more sudden.
• Sustained moves toward and beyond $90K will likely require renewed demand shocks, supportive macro conditions, and a healthier balance between ETF inflows, LTH behavior, and derivatives leverage.

For traders, investors, and builders across crypto and web3, the key is not just asking “Will BTC hit $90K?” but preparing for multiple scenarios-from deeper corrections to renewed price discovery-while aligning strategies with on-chain data, macro trends, and evolving market structure.